The Leafs' Top 10 Prospects Heading Into the 2026 Offseason

Where the pool actually stands

Toronto's prospect pool has been graded somewhere between 25th and 28th in the NHL for the last three seasons. It has been, not coincidentally, the era in which the Leafs have used their top picks as trade currency to keep the competitive window open — which is also why the draft page reads the way it does, and why the May 5 lottery matters so much.

That said, the pool has more in it than the rankings suggest. What follows is LeafsLurker's top 10 heading into the offseason, built from a synthesis of Daily Faceoff, The Hockey Writers, Pension Plan Puppets and Elite Prospects reporting, with an editorial eye toward what each player actually means for Toronto — not what they might be if everything breaks right.

Graded honestly. No top-100-overall rankings if the ceiling is third-line.

1. Easton Cowan — LW, 20

Drafted: 28th overall, 2023 · Where: Toronto Marlies (AHL) · Timeline: NHL 2026-27

The only Leafs prospect most serious list-makers have in the 30-to-50 range of top-100 overall prospects. Cowan's final junior year in London saw his regular-season points drop from 96 to 69, but he closed with 39 points in 17 OHL playoff games — a 2.29 points-per-game pace against the toughest competition the OHL had to offer. The production dip was real; the playoff response was more real.

At the AHL level he's been a regular contributor without being a dominant one, which is exactly what scouts expected. His skating has always been ahead of his frame, and his vision — already above average — is still developing. The realistic projection is a 55-to-65 point second-line winger with room for more if the shot improves.

If the Leafs sign a top-six winger in free agency, Cowan probably opens 2026-27 on the third line and works his way up. If they don't, he gets a harder look for second-line minutes. Either way, this is the last offseason in which he ranks as a prospect.

2. Ben Danford — RHD, 19

Drafted: 31st overall, 2024 · Where: Oshawa Generals (OHL) · Timeline: NHL 2027-28

The most important non-forward the Leafs have drafted since Timothy Liljegren, if you grade on projection rather than pedigree. Danford is a right-shot defenseman — the position Toronto has had depth problems at for a decade — with above-average defensive instincts and a game built on positioning rather than athletic gifts.

The upside is not a top-pair star. The upside is a reliable second or third-pair defender who plays 18 minutes a night and kills penalties well enough to not embarrass a team. That is exactly the archetype Toronto is thin on once Brandon Carlo's contract expires in 2027.

Danford needs one more full season to round out, likely split between junior and the Marlies, before he's in NHL conversations.

3. Dennis Hildeby — G, 23

Signed: 2022 free agent · Where: Toronto Marlies (AHL) · Timeline: NHL 2026-27

The 6-foot-7 Swedish goaltender was called up during the Stolarz injury stretch in 2024-25 and went 3-3-0 with an .878 save percentage — not good, but not disqualifying either. His AHL numbers this year have been middling, which is the part of his development that concerns scouts more than the short NHL stint.

Hildeby's ceiling is a solid NHL backup. The frame alone buys him runway; he swallows the net when he's square and tracks pucks at a level most AHL goalies don't. The question is consistency at the game-to-game level, which he has not yet shown.

With Stolarz and Woll both under contract through at least 2028, Hildeby's path to Toronto runs through either a trade or an injury-driven call-up. A team with more goaltending opportunity might take him out of Toronto's hands in the next 18 months.

4. Artur Akhtyamov — G, 23

Drafted: 106th overall, 2020 · Where: Toronto Marlies (AHL) · Timeline: NHL 2026-27 or 2027-28

Smaller, more athletic, and a year younger of development status than Hildeby. Akhtyamov's numbers in his first AHL season have been the better of the two Marlies goalies, with a save percentage that has climbed steadily since an uneven start.

The internal competition with Hildeby is the story here. Both are 23. Both have two years to establish themselves. Both project as backups, not starters. Only one will likely be on an NHL roster by 2028. My read: Akhtyamov has the higher ceiling, Hildeby has the safer floor, and the Leafs will pick the one whose performance over the next 18 months pulls away from the other.

5. Noah Chadwick — LHD, 20

Drafted: 181st overall, 2023 · Where: Toronto Marlies (AHL) · Timeline: NHL 2027-28

A 6-foot-4 left-shot defenseman whose late draft position now looks like a bargain. Chadwick's offensive game has developed faster than scouts projected — he's no longer a pure shutdown profile and has started showing reads at the offensive blue line that were not in the tool kit two years ago.

Projection: third-pair defender with second-pair upside if the offensive improvement keeps going. Not a star, but a useful cost-controlled piece on the left side where Toronto already has Rielly and McCabe locked up long-term.

6. Tyler Hopkins — C, 18

Drafted: 86th overall, 2025 · Where: Guelph Storm (OHL) / Toronto Marlies (AHL tryout) · Timeline: NHL 2028-29

A two-way center out of the OHL who finished the regular season leading his team in scoring with 50 points, then signed an amateur tryout with the Marlies for the stretch run. Back-to-back 50-point OHL seasons combined with a reliable defensive game is the profile of a real third-line center prospect — which, as the structural-needs piece argues, is exactly what Toronto has been missing.

Hopkins won't be in the NHL for two years. By the time he arrives, the top six may have been rebuilt around him. If the Marlies tryout produces a clean development arc, he's a sneaky breakout candidate.

7. Harry Nansi — LW/RW, 18

Drafted: 153rd overall, 2025 · Where: Owen Sound (OHL) / Toronto Marlies (AHL tryout) · Timeline: NHL 2028-29

The OHL's Most Improved Player by the coaches' poll — went from 23 points last season to 56 (13G, 43A) this year, at 6-foot-3 with physical upside. Nansi also signed an ATO with the Marlies for the remainder of 2025-26.

The rise is the right kind of rise: from limited contributor to every-shift factor, which is the developmental pattern successful late-round picks usually follow. The Leafs have been thin on size in the top-nine for years; Nansi is the kind of player who, if the ceiling is even 80% of what the improvement year suggests, slots into a bottom-six role with upside to climb.

8. Miroslav Holinka — C, 19

Drafted: 124th overall, 2023 · Where: Toronto Marlies (AHL) · Timeline: NHL 2028-29

The Czech center is the most pro-ready player in this tier on defense, which is the nice way of saying his offensive ceiling is limited. Holinka plays a reliable 200-foot game, supports the puck on retrievals, and has the kind of processing speed that plays up in the NHL even when the point totals don't look exciting.

Projection: fourth-line center who kills penalties and wins faceoffs. That's a useful player on a contending team, and the Leafs will need him if the Maccelli-Robertson-Domi shuffle produces a contract hole at the bottom of the lineup.

9. Tinus-Luc Koblar — C, 18

Drafted: 64th overall, 2025 · Where: Leksands U-20 (Sweden) · Timeline: NHL 2029-30

A 6-foot-3 Norwegian center playing in Sweden — big-bodied, physically engaged, and developing as an offensive threat more slowly than his size suggests he should. Koblar is a bet on tools, not on track record.

The European development path adds uncertainty on the timeline. Best case, he makes the jump to Swedish pro hockey next season and builds toward an NHL debut in three years. Worst case, he stays in development for four and arrives as a bottom-six piece.

10. Topi Niemelä — RHD, 23

Drafted: 64th overall, 2020 · Where: Malmö Redhawks (SHL) · Timeline: NHL 2026-27 or later

The highest-ranked Leafs prospect five years ago, now in recovery mode after not breaking through with the Marlies. Niemelä went back to Europe to reset his development, which is a strategy that has worked for enough Finnish defensemen — Miro Heiskanen aside — to be worth trying.

At 23, the clock is tighter. If he breaks through in the SHL next season, he gets one more NHL look. If he doesn't, he probably stays in Europe permanently. The Leafs have almost nothing invested in him now beyond waiting to see what happens.

Honorable mentions

• Rylan Fellinger — RHD, 18 · 6-foot-4 shutdown defender out of the 2025 draft, right-handed, from Wawa. Physical profile projects.
• William Belle — F, 18 · 2025 5th-rounder with a physical edge. Fourth-line projection at best.
• Victor Johansson — LHD, 19 · Swedish U-20 defender, improving offensive game.
• Matthew Hlacar — F, 18 · 2025 7th-rounder, depth piece.

What the pool tells us

Two things. First, the top of the pool is three years from help. Cowan is the only realistic near-term contributor in this list; Danford and Chadwick are 2027-28; everyone else is 2028 or later. The Leafs' competitive window through 2028 is going to be driven by the NHL roster and cap space, not the prospect pipeline.

Second, the pool has more center and right-shot defensemen developing than any version of it in the last decade. If even two of Hopkins, Holinka, Koblar, Danford and Niemelä hit their projections, the Leafs get cheap rotational depth at the two positions they've spent the Matthews era overpaying for in free agency.

The list also tells you why May 5 matters. Add Gavin McKenna — or whoever lands at the top of the draft for Toronto — to this list, and suddenly the pool's top tier has a franchise forward in it. Without that pick, it's a solid mid-tier group with no stars. That is, in one paragraph, the stakes of the lottery.

This list gets updated after May 5 and again after June 26-27 when the draft is done.