How many picks do the Leafs have in the 2026 NHL Draft?

Seven if they keep their conditional 1st-round pick, six if they don't. Picks: a conditional 1st (top-5 protected), no 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th (via Anaheim), two 5ths (their own plus a conditional from Colorado), a 6th (via San Jose), and their own 7th.

How reliable are NHL Draft mock drafts past Round 3?

Not very. Public scouting rankings extend 90-to-125 prospects deep; beyond that, teams rely on internal scouting and mock drafts become speculative. The NHL Draft produces meaningful variation in the late rounds because team-to-team draft preferences diverge significantly once the consensus list runs out.

What is the NHL hit rate for 4th-to-7th round picks?

Approximately 20% for 4th-rounders, 15% for 5th-rounders, 10% for 6th-rounders, and 5% for 7th-rounders — defined as 'played at least 100 NHL games.' Hit rate at the 'NHL regular' level is lower across all late rounds, though standout late-round picks (Pavel Datsyuk, 171st overall, 1998) anchor the romance of the late rounds.

Why do teams draft so many goalies in late rounds?

Goaltending projection is notoriously difficult — goalies develop later than skaters and the statistical translation from junior to pro is weak. Teams spread the risk by drafting two or more goaltenders per class, usually in the 4th-through-7th round range where the opportunity cost of a miss is low.

Will the Leafs make trades during the 2026 Draft?

Almost certainly. Brad Treliving has made deals at every draft since joining Toronto, and the thin Leafs prospect pool combined with $17M of projected July 1 cap space makes the draft a natural inflection point. Expect at least one deal involving future picks or roster players during the June 26-27 window.

2026 NHL Draft Rounds 4-7: What to Watch When the Mock Drafts Run Out

Why this isn't 128 pick-by-pick profiles

Public scouting coverage of the NHL Draft runs 90-to-125 prospects deep. Mock drafts beyond the third round exist, but the reliability drops off a cliff — most of Rounds 4 through 7 are not public-scouted in any detailed way. Writing out 128 made-up "projected picks" across the late rounds would be fiction dressed as analysis, and that's not what the blog does.

Instead, what follows is a real look at what actually happens on day two of the draft in Rounds 4-7: how teams think, what archetypes they draft for, which prospects in the 2026 class are most likely to hear their names, and — most importantly for this audience — where the Leafs pick and what they should target.

Round 4: where scouts still have real reads

Round 4 (picks 97-128) is the last round in which public scouting rankings still have real coverage. Tankathon's big board runs to 122; Foley's ranking goes to 100; NHL Central Scouting's lists extend past 100 North American skaters plus 60+ international.

Prospects most likely to go in Round 4

Based on consensus rankings, these are the names most likely to come off the board in the 97-to-128 range.

Alexei Vlasov, LW, Victoriaville (QMJHL) — Russian-born QMJHL winger, skilled but uneven.
Max Isaksson, C, Växjö Lakers (SHL) — Swedish center, playing pro hockey at 17.
Niko Tournas, RW, Moncton (QMJHL) — Finnish-born Q-leaguer, size and shot.
Maksim Sokolovskii, LD, London Knights (OHL) — London's development program produces NHL blueliners at a higher rate than average.
Tobias Tvrznik, G, Wenatchee (WHL) — Goaltender with size, late in the goalie pecking order of this class.
Matias Vanhanen, F, Everett (WHL) — Finnish-born, strong puck-hound forward.
Michal Orsulak, G, Prince Albert (WHL) — Czech-born WHL goalie with advanced tracking.
Colin Fitzgerald, C, Soo Greyhounds (OHL) — Linemate of Chase Reid's; scouting visibility from team attention.
Callum Croskery, LD, Soo Greyhounds (OHL) — OHL defender, Reid's defense partner at times, smooth puck-mover.
Axel Brongel-Larsson, LD, Frölunda HC U20 (J20 Nationell) — Swedish junior blueliner, teammate of Stenberg's in the Frölunda system.

Leafs in Round 4

Toronto does not own its original 2026 4th-round pick (dealt to Seattle in the Bobby McMann trade), but they did acquire Anaheim's 4th-rounder on March 6, 2026. Per the draft page, that's their 2026 4th-round slot.

Anaheim finished ahead of several bottom-feeders this season, so their 4th-rounder lands in the later portion of the round — somewhere in the 113-to-125 range, depending on order. Good target archetypes at that slot: raw-skill Europeans with upside (Isaksson, Brongel-Larsson) or physical WHL/OHL depth forwards.

Round 5: mostly bets on tools

Round 5 (picks 129-160) is where consensus rankings evaporate. Teams draft almost entirely on internal scouting lists at this point; two teams' lists diverge wildly once you get past the consensus top-125.

The kinds of prospects who go in Round 5, across any draft year:

Over-age (19- or 20-year-old) prospects who were passed over in their first draft year and improved meaningfully.
European U-20 players scouts have seen only two or three times — usually one team has a strong regional scout who pushed.
CHL players with specific tools (shot, skating, size) but missing a round-3 level of rounded development.
Goaltenders. Goalies are drafted heavily in rounds 4-7 because of the difficulty of projecting them.

Leafs in Round 5

Toronto owns its own 5th-rounder. They also inherited a conditional 5th-rounder via Colorado (the Nicolas Roy trade), which per the condition gives them the lattermost of Boston/Colorado/Philadelphia's 2026 5th-round picks. That's two 5th-round swings in a class where Round 5 value is almost entirely development-staff-dependent.

Historical Leafs 5th-round picks have trended toward CHL players with size — the Nicholas Robertson, William Belle, Harry Nansi archetype. Expect the scouting staff to continue leaning into that profile, given the recent hits.

Round 6: lottery tickets

Round 6 (picks 161-192) is a lottery-ticket round by definition. The hit rate on 6th-round picks producing even 100 NHL games is under 10%. Teams that spend these picks strategically — on over-age CHL breakouts, European U-20 late-bloomers, or size-profile project goalies — occasionally find real NHL players (Noah Chadwick was a 6th-rounder; so was Jake Guentzel).

Most 6th-round picks never play an NHL game. That's not a criticism; it's just the math of the position.

Leafs in Round 6

Toronto's own 6th-round pick was dealt to Carolina in the Cade Webber trade. They did acquire San Jose's 6th-rounder in the Timothy Liljegren trade, which is their 2026 6th-round slot. SJS's order-of-finish places that pick near the back half of the round.

Round 7: picks with reasons

Round 7 (picks 193-224) is genuinely the league throwing darts. Every team makes at least one Round 7 pick. Roughly half of all Round 7 picks never sign with the drafting team, and of those who do, most play minor-league hockey for a year or two before bouncing out of the organizational pool.

What Round 7 picks are actually for:

Holding rights on a player the scouting staff genuinely likes. Development timelines can move; a 7th-rounder who breaks out in his next junior season can be re-signed or traded.
Drafting a local kid, family connection, or scout's favorite. This happens more than the league admits, and it isn't a waste — these picks sometimes turn into professional players at the minor-league level.
Flyers on size, tools, or goaltending. A 7th-round goalie with NCAA time ahead is a 4-year option with zero cost.

Leafs in Round 7

Toronto holds their own 2026 7th-rounder. Expect a pick in the classic mold — a big CHL forward, a development-camp project, or a goalie in the NCAA pipeline.

The round-by-round Leafs slate

Pulling it all together, Toronto's 2026 draft haul (assuming current pick inventory holds) is:

Round 1: 5th overall (conditional on lottery — 41.8% to keep)
Round 2: No pick
Round 3: One pick, their own (roughly 77-85 range)
Round 4: One pick, acquired from Anaheim (roughly 113-125 range)
Round 5: Two picks — their own, plus the conditional lattermost of BOS/COL/PHI 5th-rounders
Round 6: One pick, San Jose's (via Liljegren trade)
Round 7: One pick, their own

Total: seven picks if the 1st-rounder stays. Six if it doesn't. Either way, five of those selections are in the range where public scouting runs thin and internal staff work determines value.

The Leafs round-by-round strategy piece (publishing next) walks through what they should actually target at each slot.