Leafs 2026 Free Agency: What Toronto Can Actually Afford on July 1

The one-line version

If the cap rises to $104M as projected, two Leafs UFAs walk cheap, two RFAs need new deals, and Toronto heads into July 1 with something in the range of $15M–$20M of real working space. That's not enough to chase Kirill Kaprizov. It's more than enough to change the middle-six.

Here's the breakdown.

The Leafs' own expiries

UFAs (can sign anywhere)

• Calle Jarnkrok — $2.1M AAV, M-NTC. A useful bottom-six RW who missed chunks of both seasons to injury. If he's back at term-and-money this team can stomach, fine. If another club offers two years, he probably walks. Expect: light lift to retain at roughly $1.75M–$2M on a one-year, or a clean goodbye.
• Troy Stecher — $787.5K AAV, depth right-shot defenseman. League-minimum adjacent. Either he gets a similar deal to stay as the seventh, or he doesn't. Not a cap-math problem either way.

RFAs (Leafs hold rights)

• Matias Maccelli — $3.425M walk year, coming over from Utah last summer for a conditional third. If he puts up the 40-point pace he flashed in flashes, he gets a two-year bridge at $4M–$4.5M. If he doesn't, qualifying offer at 105% (~$3.6M) and hope for a bounce-back.
• Nicholas Robertson — $1.825M RFA, seven goals-ish in a fourth-year audition. He's been on the trade block in every cycle since 2023 without moving. Probably another one-year RFA deal under $2M. Eighth time lucky.

Everyone else on the cap page is under contract through at least 2027. The core doesn't move this summer unless Treliving wants it to.

The cap math heading in

The projected NHL upper limit for 2026-27 is $104M, up from $95.5M this season. It is the single largest year-over-year cap increase in the league's history.

Toronto's current cap hit sits at roughly $82.9M against the $95.5M ceiling. When July 1 flips, Jarnkrok ($2.1M) and Stecher ($787.5K) come off, Maccelli ($3.425M) and Robertson ($1.825M) get replaced by whatever their new deals look like, and Chris Tanev's LTIR status either continues or resolves. Call it a clean starting cap hit of roughly $77M before RFA re-signings.

Re-sign Maccelli at $4.25M and Robertson at $1.9M — rough projections — and you're at $83.1M. Against a $104M ceiling, that's $20.9M of theoretical space. Call it $17M once you account for bonuses, in-season roster flex, and the likelihood of one move that adds salary and subtracts nothing clean. That's the real working number heading into the week of July 1.

The CBA wrinkle that changes everything

The new NHL-NHLPA collective bargaining agreement kicks in on September 15, 2026. Among several changes, the big one for free agency math: the maximum contract term for UFAs drops from eight years to six years (seven when re-signing with your own team).

That means July 1, 2026 is the last day a team can lock down a UFA on an eight-year deal. Every agent for every 2026 UFA knows this. Every general manager knows this. The expected result: the top of the market is incentivized to sign on July 1 to lock in that last eighth year, even if it means leaving a few hundred thousand on the table. Everything signed before September 15 comes with the longer term structure; everything after is capped shorter.

For a team in Toronto's position, this has two effects. First, bargain hunting in the second tier of free agents becomes easier — not every UFA will chase the eight-year deal, and some will take term-and-trust over guaranteed maximum years. Second, any player Toronto does target and sign will almost certainly want that eighth year. Term, not AAV, is the negotiating lever.

The league UFA class

Several of the biggest projected names have already been extended. McDavid locked in with Edmonton. Eichel's extension with Vegas is treated as a matter of time. Kaprizov re-signed with Minnesota in the winter on a contract that reportedly approaches $15M per year — the top of the market for anyone who makes it to July 1.

That leaves a still-deep class, but not a historic one. The realistic names — the ones a team like Toronto could plausibly fit in the $17M working-space window — are mostly in the second tier.

Forwards worth a Leafs conversation

• Nikolaj Ehlers (Winnipeg) — Left-shot winger, 30 years old, consistent 60-to-75-point producer, and the player who was reportedly in no rush to re-sign through the spring. If he hits market, Toronto is one of the few teams with cap room, roster fit, and the kind of top-six hole Ehlers slots into. Projected AAV: $8.5M–$9.5M.
• Adrian Kempe (LA Kings) — Right-shot 200-foot winger who has had two 35-goal years. The fit is less obvious with Nylander already in the RW room, but Toronto needs scoring on both sides. Projected AAV: $9M.
• Alex Tuch (Buffalo) — Big-bodied RW, strong playoff history even though his team hasn't been to one. He'd be expensive but fits the Berube identity. Projected AAV: $8M–$9M.

Defensemen worth a Leafs conversation

• Rasmus Andersson (Calgary) — Right-shot defenseman in his late twenties. The Leafs' right-side D depth is solid (Carlo, Ekman-Larsson, Myers, Tanev) but none of them is a true second-pair upgrade. Andersson could be that. Projected AAV: $7M.

Goaltenders

Toronto doesn't need one. Stolarz is signed through 2030, Woll through 2028. If you see the Leafs linked to Sergei Bobrovsky in July, it's rumour-column filler.

What Toronto probably does

Reading the room: the Leafs will not go big on July 1. Treliving's offseasons have been about filling specific holes on short-to-medium term deals, not stacking AAV at the top of the sheet. The pattern over three summers has been cap flexibility first, star-chasing second.

Likeliest shape of the Toronto offseason:

• One top-six winger added at $7M–$9M on a term of four years or more. Ehlers is the cleanest fit.
• A third-line center added at $3M–$4M on a two-to-three year deal. This is where depth from the Roy trade should have come from, if Roy had stayed.
• Both RFAs (Maccelli, Robertson) re-signed on one or two year deals.
• Jarnkrok retained or walked — not dealt.
• Stecher retained at depth, or a seventh defenseman signed at similar money.

That leaves roughly $4M–$6M of in-season flexibility for mid-year moves. It doesn't close the gap with Florida. It does produce a roster that's better than the one that missed the 2025-26 playoffs, which is the only target that matters this summer.

The short version

Two UFAs walk cheap. Two RFAs get qualified. The cap goes up $8.5M. The CBA forces the top of the UFA market to sign by September 15. Toronto has about $17M of real working space and one clear hole in the top-six. Ehlers, Kempe or Tuch is the move that makes it make sense. Everything else is depth work.

July 1 is seventy-five days away. Watch the cap sheet — it'll move fast.