Leafs First Overall Pick: The Real Case for McKenna vs Stenberg

The Leafs first overall pick is now real

The Leafs first overall pick is no longer a lottery dream — it is a decision. After winning the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, Toronto controls the top selection at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on June 26, and GM John Chayka and senior adviser Mats Sundin have already begun publicly previewing the two names at the centre of the conversation: Penn State forward Gavin McKenna and Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg. For a franchise that has not picked this high in a generation, getting it right matters enormously.

Crucially, Toronto did not just win the lottery — it protected the pick. The selection carried top-five protection and would have converted to Boston had the Leafs fallen out of the top five. Instead they jumped to the very top, keeping the pick and landing the No. 1 overall choice in the same night.

Gavin McKenna: the consensus favourite

McKenna has been the projected first overall pick for most of the cycle, and the betting markets reflect it — he has sat as a heavy favourite to go first. The appeal is his hockey sense and playmaking. He is an elite creator whose vision and passing are described as genuinely special, the kind of high-end offensive engine teams build around.

His production backs the hype. In 2025-26 at Penn State, McKenna posted 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) in 34 games, averaging 1.5 points per game — second in the country. He paced the Big Ten with 38 points in 24 conference games and authored an eight-point night against Ohio State, one of the highest single-game totals the league had seen in decades. He was a Hobey Baker top-10 finalist as a draft-eligible player competing against older college talent, which is its own kind of endorsement.

Ivar Stenberg: the legitimate challenger

Stenberg is not a throw-in name to make the debate interesting — he has genuinely closed the gap. The 18-year-old left winger spent 2025-26 with Frölunda in the Swedish Hockey League, posting 11 goals and 22 assists for 33 points in 43 games. That total led all junior-aged players in the SHL in both assists and points, an impressive feat in a demanding men's professional league. He has also impressed at the international level, featuring at the World Juniors and the IIHF World Championship for Sweden.

The case for Stenberg is the difference in level of competition. Producing at the top of the junior class against grown professionals in the SHL is, by some scouting frameworks, a tougher test than dominating NCAA hockey. He is the higher-floor, pro-ready option for a team that might want a player closer to NHL impact.

How the two profiles differ

This is a real stylistic choice, not just two names ranked one and two. McKenna is the dynamic, high-ceiling playmaker — the swing-for-the-franchise-cornerstone pick. Stenberg is the polished, pro-tested scorer whose game has already translated to men's hockey. One question Toronto has to answer is positional: McKenna profiles as a centre or winger with top-line creation upside, while Stenberg is a winger, and the Leafs' most acute long-term need down the middle is well documented.

That centre-depth question has only grown louder this offseason after Max Domi's surgery complications, which we covered in our Max Domi update. A prospect who can eventually play centre carries extra value for this specific roster — though no team should draft for need over a clearly superior talent at first overall.

What Chayka and Sundin have signalled

Both Chayka and Sundin have spoken about the two prospects since winning the pick, treating it as a genuine evaluation rather than a foregone conclusion. That is partly diligence and partly leverage — a team at No. 1 has no reason to tip its hand. The recent hiring of veteran scout Judd Brackett as assistant GM of player evaluation, which we detailed in our piece on the front-office overhaul, means a respected drafting mind will have direct input on the final call.

The most likely outcome, based on consensus rankings and market odds, remains McKenna. But the public engagement with Stenberg suggests Toronto is doing the work rather than rubber-stamping a name, and that is exactly what a first overall pick deserves.

What it means for the rebuild

Whoever Toronto selects, the pick is a foundational asset on an entry-level contract — cheap, controllable, high-upside talent of the kind a cap-strapped contender desperately needs. Pairing a player of this calibre with the existing core of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Matthew Knies is the most exciting development the franchise has had in years, even amid the broader uncertainty around the coaching staff and roster. We outlined the bigger-picture targets in our offseason needs breakdown, and you can track the rest of Toronto's selections on the draft hub.

The NCAA-versus-Europe evaluation puzzle

Part of what makes this decision genuinely hard is that McKenna and Stenberg played in completely different environments, which complicates any direct comparison. McKenna dominated NCAA hockey as a draft-eligible player skating against older college athletes — an unusual and impressive context, since most top prospects his age are in junior. Stenberg, meanwhile, produced as the best junior-aged player in a men's professional league in Sweden. Scouts and models weigh those leagues differently, and reasonable evaluators land in different places.

This is exactly the kind of question a modern scouting department is built to answer. League-equivalency models attempt to translate production across competitions, but they are estimates, not certainties, and they have to be paired with the eye test and the player interviews from the combine. Toronto's freshly reinforced evaluation staff will be earning its keep on precisely this puzzle over the next three weeks.

What history says about No. 1 picks

One more piece of context: first overall picks are not guarantees, but they hit at a far higher rate than any other slot in the draft. The expectation for a top selection is a top-six forward or a top-pairing defenceman at minimum, and both McKenna and Stenberg project comfortably in that range. The downside risk at No. 1 is real but limited, which is why teams treat the pick as a near-certain cornerstone rather than a gamble. History is littered with first-line stars taken first overall and very few outright busts, and both of Toronto's candidates carry the kind of pedigree that makes a miss unlikely. For Toronto, that certainty is the entire point — after years of trading away draft capital, the franchise finally gets to add a blue-chip talent at the most valuable price in hockey, the entry-level deal.

What's next

The 2026 NHL Scouting Combine and final interviews will inform the decision, with the pick made on June 26 in Buffalo. Expect McKenna to remain the favourite, but do not dismiss Stenberg — his SHL production against professional competition gives Toronto a real choice. Either way, the Leafs first overall pick is the most consequential draft decision the organization has faced in decades, and it lands in the lap of a brand-new front office. For more on the prospect at the top of the board, revisit our earlier profile of Gavin McKenna as the Leafs' potential top pick.